Drama 115 - Construct a Dialogue on Hamlet & Daly's, Under the Glass Essay

Drama 115 - Construct a Dialogue on Hamlet & Daly's, Under the Glass Light - Essay Example WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE: Argh. First of all my plays aren’t as pretentious as you’re making them out to be. During my time they were attended by many people from the lower classes. They were regarded as popular entertainment, while other playwrights like Christopher Marlowe were considered intellectual and pretentious, as you so politely indicated (Greenblatt). As for filler, the opening scene of Hamlet opens to a ghost sighting. A terrifying ghost sighting! The play is immediately in the thriller/horror genre, not like yours which just meanders around for a -- WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE: Look I wrote long monologues because it allowed me to capture the character’s in-depth thoughts. This way I was able to explore aspects of the human condition that typical dialogue can’t attain. It was also the style of the time; sure I could have written realistic dialogue, but it wouldn’t have appealed to as large as an audience. I worked within the conventions of my time, but explored timeless themes. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE: Partially I wrote that way so my actors could learn their lines easier (Greenblatt). I also wrote that way because it more closely approaches the sonorous quality of music. This way my characters weren’t merely talking, they were singing to the essence of the heavens and human condition! AUGUSTIN DALY: Are you really this full of yourself? Your ego has been blow up beyond all proportion. You think you’re like God or something. Look, with my work I’m not trying to explore the meaning of life, I’m just trying to make a statement of society. Expose some hypocrisy. Maybe change some minds. AUGUSTIN DALY: You obviously don’t understand subtlety. So for instance, consider the scene when Pearl tells Ray that Laura was actually a poor pickpocket and instead got brought into aristocracy at the age of 6. AUGUSTIN DALY: So in this scene Ray, who had been professing his unending love for Laura just 2 minutes earlier, starts saying that he can

The Rape of the Lock Essay Example for Free

The Rape of the Lock Essay The Rape of the Lock is an outstanding mock- epic in the English Literature written by Alexander Pope. It is considered a humorous poem, as well as a combination of the classical models of epic and satire. Since the poem is based on an actual incident among Pope’s acquaintances, he is persuaded to write the story to mock his friends so they do not take the situation too seriously. Besides, the author focuses on the upper class in London, which seems to have lost the value of important matters. First of all, it can be said that the upper-class characters portrayed in The Rape of the Lock, especially Belinda, are mocked because it seems that they are narrow-minded as regards their ideas about the society where they live and they do not take into consideration important subjects. In the poem, Belinda is so concerned about her beauty that when the Baron cuts a lock of her hair she gets furious: â€Å"Then flashed the living lightnings from her eyes, / And screams of horror rend the affrighted skies.†(canto 3, lines 155-156). Belinda feels frustrated not only because she is humiliated in public, but also because being beautiful in that society means power. Her anger can be related to the fact that ladies used to devote much time to their beauty, spending hours at the dressing table; the â€Å"altar’s site,†(1.127). Apart from that, dancing and playing cards were major events to win the heart of a gentleman. Similarly, men had no concern with significant matters either as they were interested in being powerful, getting more money and flirting with ladies. The Baron, for example, the male character in the poem, feels victorious when he cuts Belinda’s lock: â€Å"`Let wreaths of triumph now my temples twine, ´ / (The victor cried); `the glorious prize is mine!†(3.161-162). As the characters focus on trivial matters as if they are truly meaningful, their flaws and weaknesses are exposed in the poem. By means of exaggeration, the author pretends to make the readers laugh at their own defects to moralize some ideas in society. The pair of scissors given to The Baron by Clarissa is referred as â€Å"A two-edged weapon†(3.128) to make fun of the situation. In addition, the fact that Belinda’s hair is cut is not a serious incident but she is in despair since it is her valuable possession. In the poem, Clarissa states that although â€Å"frail beauty must decay, / Curled or uncurled, since locks will turn to gray,† (5. 25-26), it is important to keep a sense of humor. Similarly, The Baron is quite extravagant and exhibits a childlike behavior when taking revenge that he clearly proclaims: â€Å"So long my honor, name, and praise shall live!† (3.170). It is possible to observe that he is not able to accept the fact that he has been defeated in a game by a girl. Apart from that, the card game between Belinda and The Baron is perceived as a real battle between two armies, with â€Å"halberds in their hand† (3.42). As a conclusion, it is clearly shown in the poem how society has lost the ability to value what is really important in life. It seems that the characters cannot decipher between serious events and insignificant ones. The rape of Belinda’s lock of hair, for instance, is an unimportant incident since she could have experienced a worse situation. Moreover, it is worth analyzing this poem as it reflects how ridiculous any society can be when it takes into account events, which do not really matter in life. Individuals should open their eyes to be able to value simple things that happen in our daily lives.

Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan

Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of Pakistan Natural disasters are an increasingly phenomena that we all evidently observe and identify that may have a direct bang on the interests of an area where it hits and also on explicit domestic meters in such areas. Depending of where we live, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc, are intimidation to living, belongings, industrious assets, and also can have an impact on societal pointers. The increasing occurrence of natural disasters is extremely interrelated to the increasing susceptibility of homes and communities in emergent nations, as earlier socioeconomic vulnerabilities may aggravate the shock of a natural disaster, making harder the course of revitalization (Vatsa and Krimgold, 2000). Therefore, the impact of such events could consequence in an instant raise in poverty and deficiency (Carter et al, 2007). The literature has been still conflicting to a few amounts. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have discussed that the long-standing shock on development of natural disasters is depressing, at the same time as Skidmore and Toya (2002) explain that such tragedy may upbeat impact development in the long run as there is a decrease to returns on physical assets but a boost in human capital, leading to advanced development. Strobl (2008) for the US coastal areas discover that tornados reduce countys development originally by 0.8 per cent, whereas getting your str ength back after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a critical cyclone is a diminution of 0.8 percent of development (Strobl, 2008a). The impact of a natural disaster may also origin discriminations. The poor, who undergo from profits rise and fall, and also have imperfect access to monetary services, in the consequences of a disaster may be extra flat to lessen use and have a declining upset in other domestic indicators as a result. Additionally, there are a many non poor, or close to be, who are not insured in opposition to such threats, and then may plunge into scarcity as result of recapitalizing when dealing with with the upset, depending the shock and probability of diminishing into scarcity of the original stock assets and coping means. Furthermore, susceptibility to natural disasters is a multifaceted issue, as it is strong-minded by the financial structure, the phase of growth, prevailing of communal and fiscal conditions, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and concentration of catastrophes, etc. The impact on deprived ones could be losing contact with a few vital services, reversals in accretion of corporeal and human funds, and possibly an augment in child employment and unlawful behavior. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the pretentious agents in natural disasters. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can be acquainted with the need for peripheral support and which may be more efficient; second, definite sections of affected can be acknowledged, e.g. how low income families are affected; and third, it may be also practical for setting up assistance for natural disasters and the latent results. Overall, growing literature has emerged over the last few years on the macroeconomic and development impacts of natural disasters. Amusingly, there is as up till now no harmony on whether disasters are significant from a macroeconomic point of view, and two situations can be identified. The first believes natural disasters a hinder for economic development and is well symbolized by the following reference: It has been argued that although individuals are risk-averse, governments should take a risk-neutral stance. The reality of developing countries suggests otherwise. Government decisions should be based on the opportunity costs to society of the resources invested in the project and on the loss of economic assets, functions and products. In view of the responsibility vested in the public sector for the administration of scarce resources, and considering issues such as fiscal debt, trade balances, income distribution, and a wide range of other economic and social, and political concerns, governments should not act risk neutral (OAS, 1991). The other position sees disasters as entailing little growth implications and consider disasters and their reduction a problem of, but not for development (e.g. Albala-Bertrand, 1993, 2006; Caselli and Malhotra, 2004). These authors find natural disasters do not negatively affect GDP and if anything, GDP growth is improved (Albala-Bertrand, 1993: 207). This paper can be understood as an attempt at reconciling this body of literature. There are two entry points for the analysis. The first is to look at counterfactual vs. observed GDP, the second entry point is to assess disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets (human, produced, intangible), and, importantly vulnerability. Overall, the evidence reveals adverse macroeconomic consequences of disasters on GDP. In a medium-term analysis, natural disasters on average seem to lead to negative effects on GDP. The negative effects may be small, yet they can become more pronounced depending on the size of the shock. We tested a large number of vulnerability predictors and found that higher aid rates as well as higher remittances lessen the adverse macroeconomic consequences, while capital stock loss is the most important predictor for the negative consequences. In July-August 2010, Pakistan experienced the worst floods in its history The floods have affected 84 districts out of a total 121 districts in Pakistan, and more than 20 million people one-tenth of Pakistans population More than 1,700 men, women and children have lost their lives, and at least 1.8 million homes have been damaged or destroyed (UN 2010, p.1). In attacking poverty in developing countries, due considerations need to be paid to the vulnerability of households against natural disasters. Poor households are likely to suffer not only from low income and consumption on average but also from fluctuations of their welfare once such disasters occur. These households are vulnerable to a decline in their welfare level because they have limited ability to cope with shocks and also they are subject to substantial shocks, such as weather variability (Dercon, 2005; Fafchamps, 2003). This concern has led to an emerging literature on vulnerability measures in development economics (Ligon and Schechter, 2003; 2004; Kamanou and Morduch, 2005; Calvo and Dercon, 2005; Kurosaki 2006a). We broadly think people as vulnerable when (i) they cannot mitigate income volatility and (ii) their consumption expenditure is volatile over time (they lack reliable coping mechanisms). Vulnerability is thus a forward-looking concept. As an example of low-income countries subject to substantial vulnerability, this paper examines the case of Pakistan. Pakistan is located in South Asia, where more than 500million people or about 40% were estimated to live below the poverty line at the turn of the century (World Bank, 2001). Economic development in South Asia has been characterized by a moderate success in economic growth with a substantial failure in human development such as basic health, education and gender equality (Dr`eze and Sen, 1995). This characteristic is most apparent in Pakistan (World Bank, 2002). Although the overall economic growth rates were improved during the 2000s, poverty reduction was slower than expected. Using a two period panel dataset spanning three years from the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), one of the four provinces comprising Pakistan, Kurosaki (2006a) and Kurosaki (2006b) show that rural households were indeed vulnerable to substantial welfare fluctuations. Using a three-year pan el dataset from Pakistans Punjab, Kurosaki (1998) shows that farmers consumption was excessively sensitive to idiosyncratic shocks to their non-farm income. Similar findings have been accumulated for rural India as well (Townsend, 1994; Kurosaki 2001). The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impacts of disasters and locates the proposed analysis within the disaster risk management paradigm. In section 3, we present the data and methodology used for projecting the economic impacts for a medium term horizon (up to 5 years after an event), as well as the regression analysis used for identifying predictor variables explaining potential impacts. Section 4 ends with a discussion of possible implications of our analysis. Literature Review The literature on impacts of natural disasters and economic effects is still inadequate and can be separated generally into three different categories. One part of the literature has focused on how several factors intensify susceptibility to natural events. They have maintained a natural vulnerability framework in view of climate change, deforestation and geophysical factors (McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002), other than rising urbanization which brings ecological risks and exposure to threats from deficiency of sufficient urban development and dual political discourse (Pelling, 2003 and 2003a), or even environmental immediacy to exposure, access to property and public conveniences as well as political and social networks (Bosher, 2007). All these parts become a thread to population, their assets and possessions and their dynamic competence, becoming then an expected risk. And when such danger is realized, then it turns out to be a natural adversity (see McGuire, Mason and Kilburn, 2002). Although this thread of the literature distinguishes that such risk factors influence the impact of the natural tragedy, they just briefly point out essentially the number of losses, or some irregular overheads. A second thread of the literature spotlights on the impact of natural disasters on macroeconomic pointers. Auffret (2003) examined the impact of natural catastrophe on Latin America and the Caribbean, and figured out the impact very considerable, particularly for the Caribbean, where the explosive nature of expenditure is higher than in other parts of the world, where insufficient risk-management instruments have been available in the region. This part of the literature has been still conflicting to some extent. For example Benson and Clay (2003) have also explained that the lasting impact of natural events on economic development of any country is negative, while Skidmore and Toya (2002) reveal that such tragedies may also have a constructive impact in the future growth, resulting from a decrease to returns to physical assets but an enlargement in human capital. Strobl (2008) discovers for the US coastal counties that cyclones cut districts intensification at first by 0.8 per cent, at the same time as recuperating after in 0.2 per cent. This writer also figures out for Central America and the Caribbean that the impact from a unhelpful storm is a decline of 0.8 percent of fiscal increase (Strobl, 2008a). When investigating what extra features cut or amplify the impact of such natural tragedies on macro pointers, Kahn (2005) and Toya and Skidmore (2007) explain that organizations, top education and trade openness, in addition to well-built economic segment and smaller governments are significant aspects in shaping the impact that natural events have on growth at global level. The third tributary of the literature takes care of the impact and coping means for such tragic events generally at the domestic and township levels. At this point, natural adversities are upsets that family units have to face as they are unpleasant proceedings leading to a decline in earnings or utilization, and in addition a loss in industrious property. Alderman et al (2006) by means of data for family units in Zimbabwe spotlighted on height growth of kids as result of a deficiency and civil war in Zimbabwe, result that kids influenced by such upsets have less schooling and could have been tall; if not. Dercon (2004) focused on development in utilization amongst family units in chosen villages in Ethiopia, and did not discover that upsets have an effect in the diminution of assets. Carter et al (2007) examined the impact of droughts in Ethiopia and of cyclone Mitch in Honduras on development of belongings at the village level. For Ethiopia they uncover a model of assets leveling between low income family units, i.e. such families keep hold of their assets even they are little in phases where profits and usage drops off, for instance the big deficiency aroused. They discover for Honduran families that comparatively well-off families recovered earlier from the upset than short income households, and that a poverty corner is put below a specified point of income. Baez and Santos (2007) also examined the sound effects of Mitch on households pointers, discovering no outcome on school admissions of kids, but a noteworthy add to their labor contribution. Others have investigated how some coping methods inside families have an effect on revival from a shock resulting from such an adversity. De Janvry et al (2006) explains that uncertain cash transfer accessibility before a disaster provide as a shelter for those who are affected, while those dependent and helpless people utilize as coping method an add to child labor, and savings in food and school expenses. Alpizar (2007) also discovers that access to proper economic services takes the edge off pessimistic outcomes from natural disaster upsets for farmers in El Salvador, as it leads to further proficient production. On the other hand, a less urbanized region is the impact at local level. Yamano et al (2007) explain about industries and production. These writers makes use of region-wise data for employment and production, guessing that financial fatalities are not in proportion to the sharing of manufacturing activities and people attention, signifying that strategies to improve losses should be measured from a top order. Burrus et al (2002) also examined how low intensity typhoons can shock local financial systems from side to side interruption of actions. They exercise statistics from the local Chambers of Commerce surveys and as a result of their regularity the bang could be a decrease between 0.8 and 1.23 per cent of yearly production and up to 1.6 per cent of local employment. Though, there is a slit in the study of how local communal indicators are exaggerated by natural events. This is significant to bring to the front as the effects give the impression of being stretch around all unlike points, macro, micro and local, and how strategies to deal with those upsets can be premeditated in a good way. Whereas families emerge as the natural component of investigation for researching the consequences of natural disasters, it can also seem right to balance the study up as families react to risks are frequently influenced by the broader strategy framework. Certainly, households have substantial and insubstantial assets at their clearance, and their capability to preserve or gather together such assets in such situations will be produced by the arrangements and procedures for instance governance and institutional planning, broader strategies and open circumstances at metropolitan and district level. Additionally, the experience of family units to danger loss can and has been conventionally balanced up to top levels of aggregation (UNDP, 2008). It is the number of citizens situated in definite parts joint with the individual, material and ecological conditions of families and the regions where they live that forms their communal potential to deal with a natural disaster. For that reason, we refer to the community level of study while thinking of the inferences that dangers can have. Governments have a tendency to go on board in various approaches to deal with natural happenings. In the past, they have usually reacted through disaster relief, but more lately there has been a propensity to highlight cash transfers as well. Even if both methods are adopted extra efficiency could be consummate by adopting danger diminution and improvement means that deal with the structural aspects which make families more uncovered to natural risks. Having system in position previous to the awareness of dangers is primary. At the macro level, premature warning systems and the public disaster-preparedness agenda look as if mostly significant, so as sufficient economic assets to promote revival, over and above tax inducements for households or public to take on mitigation procedures. Another type of protecting the value of material goods at the macro level could be through financial diversification. Increasing primary, secondary and tertiary sector activities along with spatial activities in the economy, can offer an open pool to multiply the risk of anguish danger losses, and extra prospects to amplify and steady profits. Equally, the concentration of financial and sector-wise activities would be reliable with condensed capability of families to administer and react to natural disasters. Still, there is a set of insubstantial facts which might improve the family hard work to get through the outcome of natural vulnerability on them, just as adverse socio-economic opportunities. The political economy and organizational aspects of the situation where assets are positioned together with the system of belief, norm and ideas set in the activities of communities members might bear out elementary while utilizing and mobilizing assets for confronting disasters. If possible, one should be capable to clarify how civilization and supremacy provision come into play when they act together with the broader surroundings of risks, assets and wellbeing results. However, most of these features will be tough to get into work empirically for the period of our technical study. Flourishing coping against natural disasters is difficult to achieve in a situation of small efficiency, staled financial development, not having access to industrious possessions, deficiency of economic reserves and safety nets in place, and broad difference crossways geographic, financial, or tribal lines. Lack of health conveniences, remoteness and low rate of education may also complex these susceptibility. Consequently, the covariate life of various natural hazards and the policy-tempted macro circumstances upsetting the rate and likelihood of effectively coping with them might reflect unreliable welfare shocks across region and sub-region levels. At last, societies can make worse these natural, site and practice-specific aspects through not making any investment in substantial and communal infrastructure at the household and district level (roads and bridges). In case of rural areas, these deficiencies can be multifaceted by a high frequency of hazards because of being covered hazard-prone areas, extending the vulnerability of families to experience any losses. Although the impact a natural disaster is an outside factor, susceptibility of causes, making the shock of the event high or low, is not. Susceptibility to natural hazards is a composite subject, as it is determined by the monetary model, the phase of growth, current social and fiscal situation, coping means, risk evaluation, rate of recurrence and greatness of hazards, etc. Lindell and Prater (2003) summarize the significance of shaping the impact and the influenced agents in natural hazards. First, that information is helpful for policy makers, as they can recognize the need for outside support and which may be extra effectual. Second, exact sections of affected can be recognized, e.g. how short income families are influenced, uniqueness of regions etc; and third, it may be also helpful for setting up backing for natural hazards and the possible penalty. They also summarize how the impact of natural hazards should consider other means. One of the main questions concerning the impact of natural hazards on families or towns is how accidental they may be. Donner (2007) examined the effects of hurricanes in the US and figured out that the effects are not accidental, because some aspects such as ecological, society, demographic, and scientific, have an occurrence on the impact of such events. On the whole the flow of impact of natural hazards can be sketched as in Figure 1. figure1.PNG Figure 1. Model of Disaster Impact Other aspect is how establishment have defined practices concerning natural events and how they systematize help in the outcome can also be determinant of the crash. Such as, Peacok and Girard (1997) explain how the revitalization process after tornado in Florida was determined more by governmental obstructions rather than lack of resources. Limited Literature is available which studies the quantitative relationship between the economy and the natural disasters. Zarrar et al (2009) studied the impact of natural disasters on the Irans Gross domestic product. They adopted a auto regressive distributed Lag model in order to study the impact. The findings showed that natural disasters have negative impact on the GDP per capita and on Per captia investment. The result of the model test was that investment had a positive impact on the economy while negative impact on GDP from the damages from the loss of Physical capital. Macro economic variables determine the impact of these natural disasters on the long run economic growth. Aaron (2007) found that financial crises caused by these disasters hurt the long run growth through inflation. This inflation is the result of increased debt burden. Other reason for this inflation could be that central bank print excess notes to pay the external and internal debt. Also the tax collection is also affected which hurdles the government efforts in compensating the losses. However the loss in revenue is compensated by the help of the Loans and aid given by the international institutions. They include the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union. These loans and aid influence the economic growth in the short as well as the in the long run. Pelling (2002) in his work identified that the most important macroeconomic impact of natural disaster can be studied by examining the inflation trends in the economy. More over the public expenditures by the government and the aid flowing as foreign direct investment influences the GDP growth rate. The used a comparative analysis technique of comparing different case studies to determine the macro-economic effects. These effects are measured by plotting the trends in GDP against macro economic factors i.e Inflation ,FDI and Loans. The literature review discusses the direct and indirect impact of economic variables on the economy. However in this research work only the impact of macro economic variables is studied. From the support of Literature review the macro economic variables which can be used to measure the quantitative impact of natural disasters on the GDP growth of Pakistan are Inflation, Internal and external debts, Foreign Aid and foreign direct investment flowing in the country. In next section of research we will take into account the above macroeconomic variables with the purpose of concluding the impact of natural disasters on the economy of Pakistan. Methodology Research Type In order to identify the macroeconomic effects of disasters, we suggest comparing a counterfactual situation ex-post to the observed state of the system ex-post. This involves assessing the potential trajectory (projected unaffected economy without disaster) versus the observed state of the economy. This contrasts with observing economic performance post-event and actual performance pre-event, as usually done in similar analysis. Our analysis requires projecting economic development into a future without an event. In short, the type of research would be purely Quantitative. Sources of Data Our two main sources of Data are: The open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. The proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database. Data type and Research Periods Our sample consists of all major natural disaster events during 1950-2010. The sample is based on information from two databases and was compiled by Okuyama (2009) with the threshold for a large event defined arbitrarily to a loss exceeding 1 percent of GDP.One database is the open-source EMDAT disaster database (CRED, 2008) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Università © Catholique de Louvain. Primary data are compiled for various purposes, such as informing relief and reconstruction requirements internationally or nationally, and data are generally collected from various sources and, including UN agencies, non-governmental organizations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies. The other database is the proprietary Munich Re NatCat Service database, which mainly serves to inform insurance and reinsurance pricing. We focus on the monetary losses. In both datasets, loss data follow no uniform definition and are collected for different purposes such as assessing donor needs for relief and reconstruction, assessing potential impacts on economic aggregates and defining insurance losses. We distinguish between sudden and slow onset events. Key sudden-onset events are extreme geotectonic events (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, slow mass movements) and extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods and winter storms. Slow-onset natural disasters are either of a periodically recurrent or permanent nature; these are droughts and desertification. We broadly associate the loss data with asset losses, i.e. damages to produced capital. This is a simplification, as indirect impacts, such as business interruption, may also be factored into the data. Yet, generally, at least for the sudden onset events, analysts generally equate the data with asset losses, and an indication that this assumption can be maintained is the fact that loss data are usually relatively quickly available after a catastrophe, which indicates that flow impacts emanating over months to years are usually not considered. Losses are compared to estimates of capital stock from Sanderson and Striessnig (2009), which estimated stocks using the perpetual inventory method based on Penn World table information on investments starting in 1900 and assuming annual growth and depreciation of 4 percent. Theoretical Framework and variables under consideration Theoretical Framework to be used in this essay to explain Economical Impacts on Pakistan due to Natural Disasters. Economical Impacts GDP Exposure Socioeconomic Susceptibility Direct Risks Produced Resources Environment Resources Human Resources Type of Hazard Physical Susceptibility Risk Management The literature on the monetary impacts explained can be associated with framework above. Independent Variables: Independent Determinants of such impacts and dangers can be renowned as: Hazard Variable: This variable is related to the type of Natural disaster/Hazard that jolts any part of Pakistan. Exposure: This variable deals with the geographical area and spatial scale of impact from the particular disaster. Economical Structure: This variable deals with the overall structure of the economy in the country and in particular region affected by the disaster (if needed). Development: This determinant deals with risks that might directly or indirectly affect the stage of the development of the country. Socioeconomic Environment: It is related to the current socioeconomic conditions in the country. Risk Management: This takes care of the availability of formal and informal mechanisms to share risks in a particular part of the country. The last four variables are related to economic susceptibility. Research Hypothesis H0: Natural Disasters do not have any significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. H1: Natural Disasters do have significant negative follow-on effects on the economy of Pakistan. Techniques We use autoregressive integrated moving average models, also called ARIMA (p,d,q) (Box and Jenkins, 1976) for forecasting GDP into the future after the disaster event. ARIMA modeling approaches are chosen because they are sufficiently general to handle virtually all empirically observed patterns and often used for GDP forecasting (see for example Abeysinghe and Rajaguru, 2004). While such a type of modeling may be criticized for its black box approach (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989), it here serves well due to the large number of projections to be made and the difficulty identifying suitable economic model approaches. The ARIMA process Recall, an autoregressive process of order AR (p) can be defined as x t = à Ã¢â‚¬  1x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 + à Ã¢â‚¬  2x tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 ++ à Ã¢â‚¬  px tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢p + ÃŽÂ µt A moving-average process of order MA (q) may be written as xt =ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 +ÃŽÂ ¸ 2ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢2 +à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦+ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q and an ARMA(p,q) process, with p autoregressive and q moving average terms can be defined to be xt =à Ã¢â‚¬  1xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++à Ã¢â‚¬   p xtà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ p +ÃŽÂ µ t +ÃŽÂ ¸1ÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 ++ÃŽÂ ¸ qÃŽÂ µ tà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢q Where à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ are parameters to be estimated and ÃŽÂ µ are white noise stochastic error terms. Now, let yt be a non-stationary series and define the first order regular difference of yt as Άyt = yt à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ytà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 or more generally using a back-shift operator denoted as Bk zt = ztà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢k yt B d yt Άd = (1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) An ARIMA (p,d,q) model can then be expressed as yt q B t B B d à Ã¢â‚¬   p ( )(1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ ) =ÃŽÂ ¸ ( )ÃŽÂ µ with B p à Ã¢â‚¬   p (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬  1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ Ã¢â‚¬   p and Bq ÃŽÂ ¸ q (B) = 1à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸1B à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸ q Data Analysis The Box-Jenkins methodology (Box and Jenkins, 1976) is applied for determining the components of the ARIMA process; i.e. we test different ARIMA(p,d,q) models with p and q to be smaller or equal 4 (due to the limited amount of data) and estimate à Ã¢â‚¬   and ÃŽÂ ¸ using Maximum likelihood techniques and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as well as diagnostic checks to detect a suitable model. The data requirements were set thus that at least 5 observed data points are needed for projections into the future. This is the smallest number of observations which are needed to estimate ARIMA (4,1,4) models (however, the majority of the sample (greater 90 percent) has at least 10 data points). Furthermore, all models are tested to be stationary (usually d=1 suffices to assure a stationary process) and all series are demeaned. To include uncertainty in the projections, also 95 percent confidence forecasts were calculated and analyzed. Forecasts into the future are performed with the selected models and then compared to the observed variables. Increases or decreases of GDP in future years are measured as a percentage increase or decrease to baseline GDP (i.e., baseline =100) which is defined to be GDP a year before the disaster event. Furthermore, the differences between observed values and projected ones are calculated and called Diff(t), which indicates the percentage difference between the observed and projected value of GDP in year t. We focus on projections with a medium term perspective (up to 5 years into the future). This limitation is due to important data constraints for the ARIMA models within

Comparative Analysis of Nike and Adidas

Comparative Analysis of Nike and Adidas Adidas is the second largest company who manufactures sporting goods all over the world. It was established in 1920.The Original founders of Adidas were two brothers Rudolph and Adi Dassler .The companys first manufacture were slippers and after that they decided to make sport shoes which went so successful that it led them to open their own shoe making factory in 1926. Then it didnt look back and today it is one of the most successful company in sporting goods. Nike was initially started in 1962 as a blue ribbon sports. The founders of Nike were Bill Bower man and Phil Knight. Nike from its modest start grown as a sporting leader in sporting goods. It is also now recognised as world s leading manufacturer, designer, marketer and distributor. Market and Literature Review of Adidas and Nike Market Share and Sales In 2009, the Market shares of Adidas was 22% of the worldwide athletic footwear while on the other end the market shares of Nike was about 33 % . In 2009 the sales percentage of Adidas reported decline in profits. In last quarter of the 2009 its sales percentage was declined by 5 % which was because of their increase in marketing costs. While in 2010 the financial report shows that there is 15 % increase in their sale because of 2010 FIFA World Cup. On the other end the sales of Nike in the fourth quarter of 2009 was decreased down by 7 %. While the first quarter of 2010 shows 53 % increase in net income. Target Audience In case of target audience both Adidas and Nike have different target audience globally. The main target audience of Adidas are between 12-34 years consumers specially involved in sports. There are various sports which are targeted by Adidas that includes gym regulars, NBA players, Football etc and also the youth who believes in living a sporty life style. While Nike on the other end has very specific target audience .It focuses mainly on males and females, who are between 18 35 years old. As Adidas, Nike also focuses on football players under its target audience. Product: Adidas The products of Adidas are divided in to 3 Categories Adidas Performance Sports shoes, perfumes, eye wear Adidas Original Superstar Sneakers, Vintage Clothing, Adicolor Trainers Adidas Style Caps , Bags , Belts , Hand Gloves Etc Nike Nike Products Sports Shoes , Sunglasses, Trainers,BodyCare,Sneakers, Hoodies , Clothes ,Caps , Bags , Perfumes etc Price : Adidas There are various Pricing strategies which are followed by Adidas according to its product. But generally it uses Market skimming strategy, that is the price of the product depends upon its colour, look etc for example: white colour shoes of Adidas is more expensive than other colour shoes. Nike As compared to Adidas , the price of products of Nike are high. It adopts different and Competetive pricing startegy than Adidas, it is based on the basis of premium segment as target customers . Nike as brand has high premium , so the price of its products is high than adidas. Place/ Distribution Adidas The most basic distribution strategy adopted by Adidas is to concentrate resources at the place where most profitable customer segment is available. So for this purpose it opened its shops all around the world. It also focuses on offering total customer service at the place where customer goes to buy its products. In addition to shop, Adidas also gives online buying service. Nike Nike on the other end had a strategy of exploring the current and developing new market, so its shops are in nearly 200 Countries. Like Adidas, it sells the products to independent distributors, licenses and subsidiaries. Same as Adidas, it also sells its products online. Positioning Adidas Adidas has its own unique brand positioning in the mind of customers. For instance one of the images of Adidas is those who want to wear light shoe should go for Adidas, rather than going for other brands. Other positioning of Adidas in customers mind is basketball shoes , this is because generally basketball players wears it because of its unique design and light weight. NIKE Nike on the other end has image of an innovative company who focuses making new innovations and designing new style shoes. As Nike s one of the main target audience are football players its key positioning in customers mind is to provide competitive edge; help athlete to perform well. Recently in order to improve its brand positioning , it made a deal with NFL by paying 1 billion dollar (approximately) , Nike will produce all the on-field apparels , it will also produce game uniforms and other side line personal apparel and fan gear. Research Method Used and Its Limitation In order to carry out research there were two main methods used Primary and Secondary Research methods. To assemble primary data a questionnaire was designed which compares both athletic brand Adidas and Nike. Sample Size. 30 While to gather secondary data internet, magazines, annual reports of the company, articles were used. Manual Method is used to get output information after analysing data. Time Schedule Total estimated time used to complete this report will be 9 week. Limitations of Primary Data Collection Method 1. The first disadvantage of carrying primary research was difference in response. Each individual has its own view. So it was difficult to generalise the information. 2. It was time consuming, costly as it takes lots of time to find a respondent who can fill questionnaire. Limitations of Secondary Data Collection Method 1. It was difficult to find data from company s website as sometimes they might not say their weakness. 2. The person who wrote secondary data might be biased. 3. The sample used by a secondary person might be small. Analysis and Discussion Key findings of Marketing Strategies Adopted By Nike and Adidas after analysing Secondary data ; Adidas There are various promotional strategies adopted by Adidas which includes television, internet, billboards and magazines. Television Advertisement Analysis of TV ad Adidas uses different media vehicles which can pop up its advertisement on television; it uses various sports channels like Star Sports, ESPN. The recent Adidas original Ad has celebrities like David beck ham, Agnes den, they used Informative Advertising because the objective of the ad was to create awareness about the launch of its new star wars collection which includes cool, funky clothes and shoes for youth, so in order to attract them they used Musical Appeal to stir up the feeling of buying. It used Peripheral Cues because it might have thought people would not be able to process information that their new collection is very cool and stylish, and so they used fashionable celebrities like Beckham and Agnes to influence target audience attitude positively. According to me the message of ad was if one wants look modish and funky as David Beckham and Agnes then should go for this new collection of Adidas. Adidas uses internet in many ways to reach its target audience, it created its own website (adida.com) exclusive digital content where one can get all information about the company including company back ground, products, sales, new launches etc. Other than this recently adidas used windows messenger game platform in order to promote its Predator and f50 boots to the age group of 15-24 years old males. Which was most effective advertisement strategy as it helped the compnay to increase 14 % brand ratings by gamers.Additionally popup ads can also be found on yahoo , espn home pages etc . According to me , the objective of using internet marketing was to attract the younsters who spends more time online than watching TV. Outdoor advertisement The organisation uses various groundbreaking outdoor advertisement such as billboard soccers, expansive wall scrappers , topiary styled billboards etc. Recently in japan adidas came with unique outdoor adverisement concept where two footballers were hung wearing hearness and have to play football for 10 mintues. The objective was to grab the attention of the people towards the billboard and adidas was successful in doing that as shown in figure , traffice around that froze for about 70 mintues. Other extremely effective concept of outdoor advertisement was made in germany in 2006 during fifa world cup , a huge arc like structure with Oliver Khan s image was putted across the road , the objective of this concept was to grab attention of the vehicles passing by road and it was successful in doing this . Sponsership And Events In addition to these it sponserd soccerex football festival for 2010 football and has confirmed four year sponsership deal with it . The objective of the deal must be to promote its products in foot ball after successfully promoting it in NBA games .Aditionally adidas have agreed to make eight year sponsership with major league soccer the objective of adidas is in to promote its products as well as to increase growth of the league and insvesment for youth development . Adidas also uses various sales promotion startegies in order to increase its sales, one of the recent sales promotion strategies is adidas coupons and coupons code in which adidas distributes coupons through dealtaker.com in which if a customers code matches with the adidas code , discount up to 30% or more than that will be given by company on various types shoes. In addition to these it also cuts down the prices of product during special festivals and events in order to increase its sales or to finish the old stock . Other than this , adidas also uses various maganizes and newspapers in order to promote its products . Nike Nike uses different promotional strategies. It promotes its products by adopting endorsement focus scheme, creating a prevailing media existence, establishing flagship stores and use of magazines, billboards, mobile etc TV Advertisement For TV ads Nike uses various sports channels to promote its products by various celebrities like Ronald no, Renaldo, and Roberto Carlos. It mainly shows its ad during football games. Recent ad was a sort Comparative Advertisement because as the title describes Nike: My better is than your better, in this ad it shows all sports games like basket ball , baseball, Running etc and try to deliver a message that Nike products are best in every game whether it is basket ball , base ball , jumping . In order to grab attention and to stir up Emotional appeal it used Fantasy and surrealism because certain images shown create fantasy. While to stir up Rational appeal it indirectly compared it s products with other products, the ad might be effective as it shows and considers its products superior in every game as compared to other companys products. Internet Nike uses various online methods in order to promote its products. It has established its own website, where customers can get lots of information about the products and company. It also uses yahoo to promote its products, according to me the objective of using yahoo and other popup ads is to make youngsters who often goes online, aware about the brand Billboards and Magazines In comparison to Adidas, Nike uses different ways of billboard advertisement to promote its products, in recent times in Hong Kong to promote its Nike s T90, a series of black and white markers were posted in local Nike stores, subways, stations and also in magazines. These markers were a kind of 3D Window Display, and to watch it, customer need to text the key word displayed on the marker and has to download the Nike application. After the software is downloaded, if one points the camera on the markers, one can see virtual 3d Nike T90 boots. These types of billboard s were specially launched for the target market of Hong Kong who is found of latest technology. Other than this Nike uses ESPN magazines to promote its product. Key Findings of Survey (Questionnaire); Recent research founded that Nike scored low rates as compared to Adidas in terms of positioning; this is because they primarily focuses on men, only 10% of female supposed that they would buy Nike sneakers again, while rest of the women likes Adidas because it focuses on both men and women uniformly.(Referred To questionnaire) 40 % of respondents prefer and gave an average rate of 6.9 to Adidas because it is cheaper and lighter in weight. For example many of the samples said I would go for Adidas because they are cheaper and also I feel myself more comfortable in the products of Adidas, particularly youngsters who are fascinated in playing foot ball because David Beckham wears it. But on the other hand 60 % of entire sample likes and gave an average rate of 8.5 to Nike, out of which 40 % sample likes it and gave an average rate of 7 because they deem its shoes are good in quality, comfortable over long distance. While other 20 % likes it and gave an average rate of 7.5 because they feel Nike provides more variety of design in shoes than Adidas and they look more stylish. For example sample 4 said I like Nike because the products are very much cool and also there are various types choices available and various types of pattern and styles are available, So it looks that People are more concerned about qualit y and comfortableness than price, so by this it can recommended to Adidas to focus more on its quality. Out of total respondents, only 70% of respondents were able to give description of recent ad of two companies out of which 40 % of respondents described Adidass new star war collection, while other 30 % of respondents described Nike s War hawk Matt Scott s No excuses commercial. 30 % of total sample remembers and likes, TV ad of Adidas because they use well-known celebrities like Beckham, Messy, Kaka etc and they are more eye-catching. For example sample 21 Said the action it shows in its ad s add attract the viewers and also the style of showing the product was awesome. 70 % of overall sample remembers and likes TV commercials of Nike because every time they demonstrate foot ball game in a unique and a bit comical way. Some people remember it because they reflect that the frequency of Nike s ad on TV is more than Adidas. After analysing primary data it can be said that, respondents like Nike more than Adidas, and Nike s communication strategies are more effective than Adidas. Conclusion Based on above analysis following Conclusion can be made ; Both Nike and Adidas are following almost same types of promotional Strategies up to some extent, both benchmarks each other, both uses internet , billboards , magazines , TV advertisement to promote their products the only differences is that they both are using different celebrities to promote their products and they also follow different endorsement strategies ,Adidas focuses on sponsoring a team and various events, while Nike bulls its eye on various stars of football, basket ball, golf etc. The other difference is their advertising message; they both use same scoop and scale but try to communicate with different messages. While the target audience of both the brands are same as well as the brand building strategy adopted by both the company seems to be same. So both companies are investing more and more in their promotional strategies, to attract more customers and at last to expand their growth.

feminaw Feminist Reading of Kate Chopins The Awakening Essay examples

A Feminist Reading of The Awakening The Awakening is not new to me. However, in the class when I read it before the instructor refused to entertain a feminist criticism. The theory presented was that Edna knew what kind of man she was marrying and all these things she went through: her friendship with Madame Reisz leaving the house, entertaining her friends at the party, her situation with Robert and Arobin were all selfish efforts toward the ultimate freedom which is death. I feel Chopin faults Leonce as much as Edna for Edna's problems. He is a cold fish. He is controlling and he puts on a show for friends and neighbors "proving" he is a model husband which he is not. He is Creole and I think Edna, being as reserve as she is, is not the best mate for him. He possibly needs an outwardly passionate woman to keep him interested and alive as a husband. For a Creole he is reserve and he does not know how to respond to Edna's reserve. By the end of chapter V we know the Pontelliers have problems and we know Robert is sympathetic towards Edna merely because she is a woman and he likes women. We have also seen the "ideal" woman in the person of Madame Ragtignolle. Chapter VI is very different. Chopin lets us know that Edna has begun to realize her world and its relationships are less than desirable. She and Leonce don't have a happy, fulfilling marriage. She is not the mother-earth type and can not appreciate her children. Although, some of the problem here is because Leonce undermines her mothering efforts and has done so from the beginning. His mother epitomizes motherhood and no one can measure up. I doubt she would have been a demonstrative mother but she would have been a loving one. The last paragraph of Ch... ... the very end of the story just before Edna enters the ocean for the last time End watches the coast. There is no living thing all along the beach, but there is a bird, a wild free bird, with a broken wing who †was beating the air above, reeling, fluttering, circling disabled down, down to the water .† Even the wild birds need support. End had no support, just like this bird and her fate is the same â€Å"down, down into the water.†I’m hung up on the lack of communication between Edna and Leonce. I wonder if Leonce has a comparable story of misery. In the first several chapters Edna says four lines and they are in response to someone or something else. They are not ideas originating with her. Leonce’s words to Edna are aimed at control. He goes off to the hotel and says he’ll be back whenever This leaves her waiting for his next move, his next demand (request).

breif explination of characters and themes of catcher in the rye :: essays research papers

Catcher in the rye Vocabulary 1. Fencing - The art or sport of using a foil, epà ©e, or saber in attack and defense. 2. Grippe - an acute febrile highly contagious viral disease. 3. Phonies - Something not genuine; a fake. 4. Ashamed - Feeling shame or guilt. 5. Compulsory - Obligatory; required: a compulsory examination 6. Peculiar - Unusual or eccentric; odd. 7. Descriptive - Involving or characterized by description; serving to describe. 8. Conceited - Holding or characterized by an unduly high opinion of oneself; vain. 9. Psychoanalyzed - To analyze and treat by psychoanalysis. 10. Halitosis - The condition of having stale or foul-smelling breath. 11. Moron - A stupid person; a dolt. 12. Suave - Smoothly agreeable and courteous. 13. Ostracized - To banish from society; to put under the ban; to cast out from social, political, or private favor; as, he was ostracized by his former friends. 14. Bourgeois - A person whose attitudes and behavior are marked by conformity to the standards and conventions of the middle class. Questions 1. Why is Holden expelled from Pency? He flunks all of his classes, except English. 2. Identify the following characters and tell about Holden’s attitude toward them: Spencer: Holden's history teacher at Pencey Prep. Holden seems to dismiss his opinions because he is older and sick at the time. Ackley: Holden's next-door neighbor in his dorm at Pencey Prep. Holden feels that Ackley is a phony because he lies about his sexual experiences. Stradlater: Holden’s roommate at Pencey Prep. Holden calls him a â€Å"secret slob† because his one razor is very dirty. Holden also calls him a â€Å"sexy bastard† because he is well liked and experienced with girls. Sally Hayes: A girl who Holden has dated and known for a long time. He thinks she is â€Å"stupid† even though he says she is well read. He also calls her a phony quite a bit. Mr. Antonlini: Holden’s former English teacher at the Elkton Hills School. Holden seems to respect him and find him to be clever. 3. Which people in the novel does Holden like? Why does he like these characters and dislike others? Holden’s main distinction for liking or not -liking someone is whether or not he thinks they are phonies. Some of the characters he likes are his sister and brothers, Mr. Antolini, Jane and Carl Luce. 4. Holden has trouble communicating with adults. Pick three adults in the novel and show how Holden â€Å"miss-communicates† with them. Spencer: Holden doesn’t respond to his concern and lecture the way an average student would by listening, instead he starts thinking of how he’s in a robe and how he doesn’t’ like to see old men’s chests or having to be around someone with grippe.

Luddites, Neo-Luddites, and Technophobes: Confused by Technology :: Exploratory Essays Research Papers

Luddites, Neo-Luddites, and Technophobes: Confused by Technology   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In today’s fast-paced society, there are many who wish we could just go back to the â€Å"good ‘ol days,† a magical time, possibly in the fantastic cultural memory of the 1950s, where we weren’t surrounded by computers and pagers and cell phones and all manner of surveillance and recording.   Many say that these things add hassle to our lives, and that the digital revolution is simply incompatible with our analog minds and souls.   Such people are often condescendingly called â€Å"old fogies† when they are, typically, older, confused by technology, and fearful of change of any sort.   There are, though, hearty subcultures which embrace a return to a less complicated time with intelligence and reason, generally known as â€Å"Neo-Luddites,† after the early 19th century English protesters who destroyed industrial machinery.   This, however, is a misnomer, as the many groups claiming ideological ancestry seldom refer to anything other than the popular anti-technology belief.   And, while the wealthy industrialists put down the Luddite rebellion, their ideals have survived, and probably will survive as long as technology continues to be so totally complex and separate from nature.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The original Luddites were technological guerillas who, from 1811 to 1813, and sporadically in the next three years, broke machines (most often knitting machines) throughout Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, and Leistershire, the three Midland counties in England, as well as starting riots and specifically terrorizing machine owners (Bailey 111-114, 18-19).   Machine-breaking was not a new form of rebellion, and the Luddites did little to modify it; there were many copycat breakings, but there were also many unconnected breakings, in the same time (11).   The chief distinguishing characteristic of the Luddites was their name, and that they had one:   rebelling â€Å"textile workers in the Midlands and north of England† used the invented name â€Å"Ned Ludd†Ã¢â‚¬â€-or â€Å"General Ludd† or â€Å"King Ludd†Ã¢â‚¬â€-in place of a leader, becoming known as followers of that name:   Luddites (x, 139). Sadly, the growing popularity of this name opened up a new area of problems.   The Luddites’ standard machine-breaking eventually inspired others to commit acts of violence in their name, which Luddite purists apparently detested enough to cease their breaking to prove the distinction (144).   Although in the thick of the machine-breaking fervor, though, there were many who took the chaotic opportunity to commit unrelated crimes in their name,